Manifold Markets

AI-assisted prediction market platform for research questions and future events

AI Science & ResearchFree

Manifold Markets is a play-money prediction market platform where users create markets on research questions, political events, sports outcomes, and AI milestones. The platform uses crowd wisdom and market mechanisms to aggregate probabilistic forecasts on uncertain questions, producing calibrated probability estimates that often outperform individual expert opinion. Researchers use Manifold to crowdsource probability estimates for scientific hypotheses, track forecaster track records over time, and identify where expert consensus may be overconfident or underconfident. AI researchers and effective altruists are particularly active on Manifold, creating markets on AI capabilities timelines, research results, and policy outcomes.

Key Features

• ✓Prediction market creation
• ✓Calibrated probability estimates
• ✓Crowd forecasting
• ✓Forecaster track record tracking
• ✓Research question markets